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Exam 3: Forecasting

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Question 41

Multiple Choice

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Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short term forecasting?

A) bringing greater variety into the product mix
B) increasing the flexibility of the production system
C) ordering fewer weather-sensitive items
D) adding more special-purpose equipment
E) none of the above

F) A) and E)
G) C) and D)

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Question 42

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Forecasts help managers plan both the system itself and provide valuable information for using the system.

A) True
B) False

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Question 43

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Forecasts based on judgment and opinion don't include

What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.3 and beta = 0.2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was 430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -150?

For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for the next period (period #5) ?

Detecting non-randomness in errors can be done using:

Forecasting techniques such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, and the naive approach all represent smoothed (averaged) values of time series data.

The shorter the forecast period, the more accurately the forecasts tend to track what actually happens.

What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?

Seasonal relatives can be used to de-seasonalize data or incorporate seasonality in a forecast.

The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are:

What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

A seasonal relative (or seasonal indexes) is expressed as a percentage of average or trend.

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

A proactive approach to forecasting views forecasts as probable descriptions of future demand, and requires action to be taken to meet that demand.

Current information on _________ can have a significant impact on forecast accuracy:

Forecasts based on an average tend to exhibit less variability than the original data.

What is this year's forecast using a four-year simple moving average?

What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?